Large-scale risk analysis in the Arno river basin (Italy)

We present the methodologies adopted and the outcomes obtained in the analysis of landslide risk in the basin of the Arno River (Central Italy) in the framework of a project sponsored by the Basin Authority of the Arno River, started in the year 2002 and completed at the beginning of 2005. A new landslide inventory of the whole area was realized, using conventional (aerialphoto interpretation and field surveys) and non-conventional methods (e.g. remote sensing techniques such as DInSAR and PS-InSAR). The great majority of the mapped mass movements are rotational slides (75%), solifluctions and other shallow slow movements (17%) and flows (5%), while soil slips, and other rapid landslides, seem less frequent everywhere within the basin. The assessment of landslide hazard in terms of probability of occurrence in a given time, based for mapped landslides on direct and indirect observations of the state of activity and recurrence time, has been extended to landslide-free areas through the application of statistical methods implemented in an artificial neural network (ANN). Unique conditions units (UCU) were defined by the map overlay of landslide preparatory factors (lithology, land cover, slope gradient, slope curvature and upslope contributing area) and afterwards used to construct a series of model vectors for the training and test of the ANN. Model validation confirms that prediction results are very good, with an average percentage of correctly recognized mass movements of about 85%. The analysis also revealed the existence of a large number of unmapped mass movements, thus contributing to the completeness of the final inventory. Temporal hazard was estimated via the translation of state of activity in recurrence time and hence probability of occurrence. The definition of position, typology and characteristics of the elements at risk has been carried out with two different methodologies, partially derived from the “Plans d’Exposition au Risque” proposed in France: i) buildings and infrastructures were directly extracted from digital terrain cartography at the 1:10,000 scale, whilst ii) nonurban land use was identified and mapped based on an updated and improved CORINE land cover map at the 1:50,000 scale. The definition of the exposure of the elements at risk relies upon contingent valuation methods and form-based interviews. Landslide intensity, usually defined as proportional to kinetic energy, was obtained considering landslide typology as a proxy for expected velocity. In the case of the Arno River Basin the definition of intensity is influenced by the fact that the large majority of mass movements are deep-seated reactivated slides evolving into flows. Two main cases were so considered: deep-seated rotational slides and shallow flows or planar slides with virtually constant depth. In the latter case, intensity as a function of volume was set proportional to the area of the mapped phenomenon. In the former case, a simple geometric model was used to compute the volume. Intersection of hazard values with vulnerability and exposure figures, obtained by reclassification of digital vector mapping at 1:10,000 scale, lead to the definition of risk values for each terrain unit for different periods of time into the future. Numerical results indicate that in absence of mitigation measures, large economic losses must be expected due to landslide activity in the few next years. The final results of the research are now undergoing a process of integration and implementation within land planning and risk prevention policies and practices at local and national level

18F-FDG PET-Derived Volume-Based Parameters to Predict Disease-Free Survival in Patients with Grade III Breast Cancer of Different Molecular Subtypes Candidates to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy

We investigated whether baseline [F-18] Fluorodeoxyglucose (F-18-FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)-derived semiquantitative parameters could predict disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with grade III breast cancer (BC) of different molecular subtypes candidate to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). For each F-18-FDG-PET/CT scan, the following parameters were calculated in the primary tumor (SUVmax, SUVmean, MTV, TLG) and whole-body (WB_SUVmax, WB_MTV, and WB_TLG). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine the capability to predict DFS and find the optimal threshold for each parameter. Ninety-five grade III breast cancer patients with different molecular types were retrieved from the databases of the University Hospital of Padua and the University Hospital of Ferrara (luminal A: 5; luminal B: 34; luminal B-HER2: 22; HER2-enriched: 7; triple-negative: 27). In luminal B patients, WB_MTV (AUC: 0.75; best cut-off: WB_MTV > 195.33; SS: 55.56%, SP: 100%; p = 0.002) and WB_TLG (AUC: 0.73; best cut-off: WB_TLG > 1066.21; SS: 55.56%, SP: 100%; p = 0.05) were the best predictors of DFS. In luminal B-HER2 patients, WB_SUVmax was the only predictor of DFS (AUC: 0.857; best cut-off: WB_SUVmax > 13.12; SS: 100%; SP: 71.43%; p < 0.001). No parameter significantly affected the prediction of DFS in patients with grade III triple-negative BC. Volume-based parameters, extracted from baseline F-18-FDG PET, seem promising in predicting recurrence in patients with grade III luminal B and luminal B- HER2 breast cancer undergoing NAC

Acute effects of a high volume vs. High intensity bench press protocol on electromechanical delay and muscle morphology in recreationally trained women

The purpose of the present investigation was to compare the acute responses on muscle architecture, electromechanical delay (EMD) and performance following a high volume (HV: 5 sets of 10 reps at 70% of 1 repetition maximum (1RM)) and a high intensity (HI: 5 sets of 3 reps at 90% of 1RM) bench press protocol in women. Eleven recreationally trained women (age = 23.3 ± 1.8 y; body weight = 59.7 ± 6.0 kg; height = 164.0 ± 6.3 cm) performed each protocol in a counterbalanced randomized order. Muscle thickness of pectoral (PEC MT) and triceps muscles (TR MT) were collected prior to and 15 min post each trial. In addition, EMD of pectoral (PEC EMD) and triceps (TR EMD) muscles were calculated during isometric bench press maximum force tests performed at the same timepoints (IBPF). Significantly greater increases in PEC MT (p < 0.001) and TR MT (p < 0.001) were detected following HV compared to HI. PEC EMD showed a significantly greater increase following HV compared to HI (p = 0.039). Results of the present study indicate that the HV bench press protocol results in greater acute morphological and neuromuscular changes compared to a HI protocol in women. Evaluations of muscle morphology and electromechanical delay appear more sensitive to fatigue than maximum isometric force assessments

Visual and semiautomated evaluation of epileptogenicity in focal cortical dysplasias - An intracranial EEG study

INTRODUCTION: The aim of the study was the evaluation of the added value of depth to subdural electrodes in delineating epileptogenicity of focal cortical dysplasias (FCDs) and to test the Epileptogenicity Index (EI) in this setting. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Fifteen patients with FCD underwent iEEG with subdural and depth electrodes. Visual/EI analysis was performed in up to three habitual seizures per patient. RESULTS: Visual analysis: Grid onset seizures (n=10) started in electrodes overlying the lesion in 7 and remote from it in 3 cases. Depth onset seizures (n=7) affected only intralesional contacts in 4, intra- and extralesional in 2, and exclusively extralesional in 1 patient. Seizures started in depth and grid contacts simultaneously in 2 cases. EI analysis: The EI completely confirmed visual localization of seizure onset in 8 cases and depicted ictal onset-time accurately in 13. Beta/gamma ictal patterns were most reliably captured. Impact on surgical decision: Resection outline differed from MRI lesion in 7 patients based on grid and in three based on depth electrode information. DISCUSSION: In FCD, seizures can be generated within gyral/deep tissue appearing normal on imaging. CONCLUSION: Investigating FCD with subdural and depth electrodes is efficient to outline the seizure onset zone. The EI is a helpful additional tool to quantify epileptogenicity. Specific ictal patterns are prerequisite for reliable results

Analisi della suscettibilità da frana a scala di bacino (Bacino del Fiume Arno, Toscana-Umbria, Italia)

In questa nota vengono presentati i metodi applicati e i risultati ottenuti in una recente analisi della pericolosità da frana, condotta sul territorio del Bacino del Fiume Arno nell’ambito di una convenzione tra l’Autorità di Bacino e il Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra dell’Università di Firenze (2002-2005). Tutti i dati acquisiti, confluiti in una banca dati GIS, sono stati sintetizzati in carte tematiche e in una carta inventario delle frane. La sovrapposizione dei fattori predisponenti selezionati (pendenza, litologia, uso del suolo, curvatura di profilo e area drenata) ha permesso di definire le unità elementari per il trattamento statistico (Unità Territoriali Omogenee: UTO). La valutazione della pericolosità è stata estesa alle aree prive di movimenti franosi utilizzando metodi statistici multivariati implementati in Reti Neurali Artificiali. L’area di studio è stata suddivisa in cinque Macroaree morfologicamente e geologicamente omogenee: per ogni Macroarea, i predittori neurali sono stati addestrati su un opportuno sottoinsieme di dati, applicando poi i migliori all’intero data-set al fine di generare valori previsti dell’indice di suscettibilità per ogni UTO. Infine, i valori di uscita sono stati riclassificati in differenti livelli di pericolosità in base a criteri di soglia e validati per confronto con l’inventario. Una percentuale di area in frana compresa tra l’81 e il 96% risulta correttamente classificata dalla previsione nelle varie Macroare

Chronic cerebrospinal venous insufficiency in patients with multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND: The extracranial venous outflow routes in clinically defined multiple sclerosis (CDMS) have never been investigated. METHODS: Sixty-five patients affected by CDMS, and 235 controls composed, respectively, of healthy subjects, healthy subjects older than CDMS patients, patients affected by other neurological diseases, and older controls not affected by neurological diseases but scheduled for venography (HAV-C), blindly underwent a combined transcranial and extracranial Color-Doppler high-resolution examination (TCCS-ECD) aimed at detecting at least two of five parameters of anomalous venous outflow. According to the TCCS-ECD screening, patients and HAV-C further underwent selective venography of the azygous and jugular venous system with venous pressure measurement. RESULTS: CDMS and TCCS-ECD venous outflow anomalies were dramatically associated (OR 43, 95% CI 29-65, p<0.0001). Subsequently, venography demonstrated in CDMS, and not in controls, the presence of multiple severe extracranial stenosis, affecting the principal cerebrospinal venous segments; it configures a picture of chronic cerebrospinal venous insufficiency (CCSVI) with four different patterns of distribution of stenosis and substitute circle. Moreover, relapsing-remitting and secondary progressive courses were associated to CCSVI patterns significantly different from those of primary progressive (p<0.0001). Finally, the pressure gradient measured across the venous stenosies was slightly but significantly higher. CONCLUSION: CDMS is strongly associated with CCSVI, a picture never been described so far, characterized by abnormal venous haemodynamics determined by extracranial multiple venous strictures of unknown origin. The location of venous obstructions plays a key role in determining the clinical course of the disease

Phase appearance or disappearance in two-phase flows

This paper is devoted to the treatment of specific numerical problems which appear when phase appearance or disappearance occurs in models of two-phase flows. Such models have crucial importance in many industrial areas such as nuclear power plant safety studies. In this paper, two outstanding problems are identified: first, the loss of hyperbolicity of the system when a phase appears or disappears and second, the lack of positivity of standard shock capturing schemes such as the Roe scheme. After an asymptotic study of the model, this paper proposes accurate and robust numerical methods adapted to the simulation of phase appearance or disappearance. Polynomial solvers are developed to avoid the use of eigenvectors which are needed in usual shock capturing schemes, and a method based on an adaptive numerical diffusion is designed to treat the positivity problems. An alternate method, based on the use of the hyperbolic tangent function instead of a polynomial, is also considered. Numerical results are presented which demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed solutions

Extra virgin olive oil phenol extracts exert hypocholesterolemic effects through the modulation of the LDLR pathway: In vitro and cellular mechanism of action elucidation

This study was aimed at investigating the hypocholesterolemic effects of extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) phenols and the mechanisms behind the effect. Two phenolic extracts were prepared from EVOO of different cultivars and analyzed using the International Olive Council (IOC) official method for total phenols, a recently validated hydrolytic procedure for total hydroxytyrosol and tyrosol, and 1H-NMR analysis in order to assess their secoiridoid profiles. Both of the extracts inhibited in vitro the 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl co-enzyme A reductase (HMGCoAR) activity in a dose-dependent manner. After the treatment of human hepatic HepG2 cells (25 &micro;g/mL), they increased the low-density lipoprotein (LDL) receptor protein levels through the activation of the sterol regulatory element binding proteins (SREBP)-2 transcription factor, leading to a better ability of HepG2 cells to uptake extracellular LDL molecules with a final hypocholesterolemic effect. Moreover, both of the extracts regulated the intracellular HMGCoAR activity through the increase of its phosphorylation by the activation of AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK)-pathways. Unlike pravastatin, they did not produce any unfavorable effect on proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin 9 (PCSK9) protein level. Finally, the fact that extracts with different secoiridoid profiles induce practically the same biological effects suggests that the hydroxytyrosol and tyrosol derivatives may have similar roles in hypocholesterolemic activity

Extra virgin olive oil phenol extracts exert hypocholesterolemic effects through the modulation of the LDLR pathway: In vitro and cellular mechanism of action elucidation

This study was aimed at investigating the hypocholesterolemic effects of extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) phenols and the mechanisms behind the effect. Two phenolic extracts were prepared from EVOO of different cultivars and analyzed using the International Olive Council (IOC) official method for total phenols, a recently validated hydrolytic procedure for total hydroxytyrosol and tyrosol, and1 H-NMR analysis in order to assess their secoiridoid profiles. Both of the extracts inhibited in vitro the 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl co-enzyme A reductase (HMGCoAR) activity in a dose-dependent manner. After the treatment of human hepatic HepG2 cells (25 µg/mL), they increased the low-density lipoprotein (LDL) receptor protein levels through the activation of the sterol regulatory element binding proteins (SREBP)-2 transcription factor, leading to a better ability of HepG2 cells to uptake extracellular LDL molecules with a final hypocholesterolemic effect. Moreover, both of the extracts regulated the intracellular HMGCoAR activity through the increase of its phosphorylation by the activation of AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK)-pathways. Unlike pravastatin, they did not produce any unfavorable effect on proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin 9 (PCSK9) protein level. Finally, the fact that extracts with different secoiridoid profiles induce practically the same biological effects suggests that the hydroxytyrosol and tyrosol derivatives may have similar roles in hypocholesterolemic activity